Plus, that league-high 5.9% drop rate might be bad for Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense, but it's helpful to us fading completions. Once Kansas City gets out to a big lead it will be able to take its foot off the gas and run the ball. No matter how many drops the Chiefs have, the Patriots will still be outmatched. The Chiefs have not been able to put teams away this season like we would have expected. Patrick Mahomes under 24.5 completions (+100).

Results from last week and the 2023 season are at the bottom of the story. So come along for the ride and see how we fare diving deep into Sunday props. If there's an advantage to be found now, it's in small markets. It's what I build statistical models around to try to find an edge. Those are efficient markets that have been bet into all week. If I'm placing bets on an NFL weekend, I'm not looking at full game spreads or totals. NFL Week 15 last-minute bets: Best values on props, picks and more You have reached a degraded version of because you're using an unsupported version of Internet Explorer.įor a complete experience, please upgrade or use a supported browser

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